Upset Specials Part 1: The Teams Being Upset

Everyone loves watching them. They're part of what makes college sports so great. They're also elusive. After all, there's a reason one team is the favorite and the other isn't. I'm talking about upsets. Here I'll take a look at which college football teams are upset the most. In part 2, I'll look at which teams pull off the most upsets.

Before proceeding, I need to point out that there is an inherent flaw in simply looking at the number of times a team has been upset. The more a team has been ranked, the more often their chances of being upset are. Because of this, I'll show how many times a team has been ranked, how many times they've been upset, and their upset % (% of weeks ranked ending in an upset). I'll also filter out teams that have been ranked less than 20% of the time (rounded up).

First, what is an upset? I've defined an upset for the purposes of this article as a game in which:

• an unranked opponent beats a ranked opponent, or
• a ranked opponent beats an opponent ranked more than 2 spots higher than them (for example, #4 over #1 is an upset, but #3 over #1 is not)

Since 1998

Since 1998, 103 teams have been upset a total of 1,301 times, for an average of ~53 upsets per season. Some as few as once. Others more than 30 times. Here's a breakdown of those upsets.

10 Most Upset Teams by % since 1998

*There have been 366 weeks of rankings since 1998, so teams ranked less than 74 times were excluded

10 Least Upset Teams by Upset % since 1998

*There have been 366 weeks of rankings since 1998, so teams ranked less than 74 times were excluded

The teams in Table 1 (10 Most Upset Teams) generally don't perform well in upset scenarios, while the teams in Table 2 (10 Least Upset Teams) do. Further evidence for this is that 4 of the Least Upset teams (Alabama, Ohio State, Florida, and Oklahoma) are among the 10 teams having spent the most time ranked. In other words, these 4 teams are ranked a lot and lose very little.

While Upset % is the more accurate stat, it's still interesting to note who has simply been upset the most. That list follows.

10 Most Upset Teams by Total Upsets since 1998

*There have been 366 weeks of rankings since 1998, so teams ranked less than 74 times were excluded

Interestingly, there is no crossover between the 10 Most Upset Teams by Total Upsets and the 10 Most Upset Teams by Upset %. The closest is actually not on either list. Texas A&M finished #13 in both lists, indicating they were ranked a lot, but also upset a lot. Note also that both Florida and Oklahoma are among the teams that have been upset the most, but also among teams with the lowest Upset %.

Obviously, the landscape of college football has changed dramatically since 1998: dynasties have come and gone, rules are different, play style heavily favors passing now... The list goes on. So, let's look at some data since 2014, the beginning of the CFP era almost a decade ago.

Since 2014

Since 2014, 86 teams have been upset a total of 473 times. That's an average of over 55 upsets per season, which is actually 2 more than the average since 1998. Here's a breakdown of those upsets.

10 Most Upset Teams by % since 2014

*There have been 128 weeks of rankings since 2014, so teams ranked less than 26 times were excluded

10 Least Upset Teams by % since 2014

*There have been 128 weeks of rankings since 2014, so teams ranked less than 26 times were excluded

Both UCLA and Arizona State appear in the top 3 in the Most Upset Teams by % tables, meaning they've been getting upset consistently since 1998. It's also interesting to note that those 2 teams as well as Texas have an Upset % of 25% or greater since 2014. These 3 teams have been upset 1/4 of the time they've been ranked.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, are the Cincinnati Bearcats who have only been upset twice since 2014, though they have only been ranked 46 times, less than half the 128 weeks. Alabama on the other hand, has been ranked every week and has been upset only 6 times. In a similar boat are Ohio State and Oklahoma, each being unranked for fewer than 10 weeks.

Once again, a table showing the Most Upset Teams by Total Upsets follows.

10 Most Upset Teams by Total Upsets since 2014

*There have been 128 weeks of rankings since 2014, so teams ranked less than 26 times were excluded

1 team appears on both the 10 Most Upset Teams by Total Upsets list and the 10 Most Upset Teams by Upset % list: the Texas Longhorns, who have not been ranked very often, but are upset often when they have been ranked.

Having been upset 16 times since 2014, LSU takes the cake as the most upset team since 2014. The Tigers were undefeated in 2019, which means these 16 upsets have come in a little over 7 seasons. LSU averages being upset as much each season since 2014 as Cincinnati has been upset total in the same timeframe.

The Best and Worst Ranked Teams

A couple notable trends appear in this data

• UCLA and Arizona State have consistently underperformed when ranked
• Alabama, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Clemson have all consistently performed well when ranked, but none better than Cincinnati

To determine which teams are the most overrated, I narrowed my lists to include only teams that were ranked at least half the time. These lists are sorted by Upset %.

5 Most Overrated Teams since 1998

*There have been 366 weeks of rankings since 1998, so teams ranked less than 183 times were excluded

5 Most Overrated Teams since 2014

*There have been 128 weeks of rankings since 2014, so teams ranked less than 64 times were excluded

Oregon appears in both lists, coming in #2 since 1998 and #5 since 2014. This means they've been consistently getting upset the last 24+ years. I therefore crown the Ducks as the Most Overrated Team of the Modern Era. Whether filtering by 20% or 50%, the Pac-10/12 appears at or near the top of each list. Turns out #Pac12AfterDark is quantifiably crazy.

As for the most consistent teams?

5 Most Consistent Teams since 1998

*There have been 366 weeks of rankings since 1998, so teams ranked less than 183 times were excluded

5 Most Consistent Teams since 2014

*There have been 128 weeks of rankings since 2014, so teams ranked less than 64 times were excluded

3 Teams appear on both Top 5 Consistency lists: Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson, with Alabama being #1 on both. I, therefore, crown the Crimson Tide as the Most Consistent Team of the Modern Era.

In the end, Alabama can be crowned the Best of the Best and Oregon as the Worst of the Best. Oddly, these 2 teams have never played each other. Based on this data though, I have a guess who would win most years.

While everyone loves an upset, they love the underdog more than the result. Continue to Part 2, where we'll take a look at which teams pull off the most upsets.