Blog Post

Simulating the 2022 Regular Season

Patrick Barlow • October 28, 2022

A sneak peek at what the future holds, according to 1 nerd's computer

Predictions are part of what makes college football so fun as a fan. The problem is this sport is wildly unpredictable outside of a handful of teams. If a single game is so hard to predict, how can you predict an entire season? Here's a secret: you don't; you let your computer do it for you.

That's exactly what I did. Using TRAM as a base, I simulated the remainder of the 2022 regular season of college football, including conference championship games. Each game was simulated several hundred times to give us the most accurate information. You can find the final standings based on this simulation by pressing this link. This simulation was originally run on 10/26/2022.

Conference Championships

The TRAM Simulation ended up with the following conference championship games:

  • AAC - UCF over Tulane by 13
  • ACC - Clemson over Virginia by 14
  • Big 12 - Texas over Oklahoma State by 14
  • Big Ten - Ohio State over Illinois by 15
  • C-USA - Western Kentucky over Rice by 10
  • MAC - Toledo over Buffalo by 13
  • MWC - Boise State over Fresno State by 3
  • Pac-12 - Oregon over Utah by 2
  • SEC - Alabama over Tennessee by 10
  • Sun Belt - James Madison over Troy by 5


Notably, most of these are rematches. UCF beats Tulane twice. Texas and Oklahoma State split their series. Western Kentucky sweeps Rice. Toledo and Buffalo each snag a victory against each other. Boise State beats Fresno State again. Oregon gets revenge over Utah 2 weeks after a 3-point loss. Alabama gets revenge on Tennessee when it matters most. That's 7/10 championship games as rematches, with the original winner going 3-4.

The Wild West

If this simulation comes to fruition, we're in for a wild ride in the Big 12. At the end of the regular season, before the conference championships, the Big 12 ended in a 5-way tie for first! Texas, TCU, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Kansas State all finished 7-2 in-conference, with the 2 losses coming against other tied teams. After going through the tie-breakers multiple times, Texas and Oklahoma State emerged as the top 2 teams thanks to point-differential in games amongst tied teams.


Everywhere around the conference is just as wacky as the top. Oklahoma finishes 5-7, only beating West Virginia down the road. Kansas doesn't win again, finishing 5-7 as well.


Future Big 12 teams also don't fare well outside of AAC Champ UCF. Cincinnati and Houston struggle down the road to finish 7-5. BYU also limps to the finish line, going 5-7.

SEC Dominance

This simulation finishes with 2 undefeated Power 5 conference champions (Ohio State and Clemson) and only 1 1-loss P5 champ (Alabama). Those 3 would be locks to get in. The remaining contenders would probably boil down to 11-2 Pac-12 champ Oregon, 12-1 SEC runner-up Tennessee, and 4 teams that finished 11-1, but didn't play for the conference championship: Georgia, Wake Forest, USC, and Michigan. It's hard to see a scenario where Tennessee doesn't make it in as the 4th team, which would mark the 3rd time the SEC has had 2 teams in the playoff.

Playing it Close

South Alabama had 5 games simulated. Their results were:

  • W by 1 @ Arkansas State
  • L by 13 @ Georgia Southern
  • L by 2 vs Texas State
  • W by 1 @ Southern Mississippi
  • L by 5 vs Old Dominion


4/5 games are projected to be 1-score games, with 2 games being projected as wins by a single point.

Must-see TV

Each team for every game is given a game rating to determine TRAM Score. This simulation was no different. The higher a team's rating, the better they played. Generally, the best/most exciting games occur when both teams score high. In only 9 games did both teams score higher than 0.7, with 4 of those games being projected to be a 1-score game. Those 4 games are:

  • Louisville @ Wake Forest (Wake Forest wins by 4)
  • Georgia @ Tennessee (Tennessee wins by 2)
  • NC State @ Wake Forest (Wake Forest wins by 6)
  • Wake Forest @ Syracuse (Wake Forest wins by 2)


The Demon Deacons, winners of 3 of those games, are looking like must-see tv down the stretch.

While projections and simulations are always fun, you know what is more fun? Enjoying the game.

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